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During his election bid, the former president vowed to avoid costly and often disastrous overseas armed engagements like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This promise was a key part of his non-interventionist “America first” platform. However within months his inauguration, American military units carried out attacks in Yemen and Iran. Looking to the south, the president warned to seize the Panama Canal. Now, the Pentagon is getting ready for possible operations against alleged “terrorist” drug cartels deep inside Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest immediate concern is a potential fresh administration attempt to forcibly impose a new government on Venezuela.

The Venezuelan Reaction and Escalating Strains

Nicolás Maduro, the nation's hard-left authoritarian president, asserts that this campaign is already under way. He states that the US is conducting a covert conflict against his nation following multiple deadly strikes on Venezuelan ships in international waters. The US president recently notified Congress that America is involved in “armed conflict” with narco-trafficking groups. He states, without providing evidence, that the attacked boats transported drugs destined for the US – and that Maduro is responsible. The administration has placed a $50m bounty for Maduro’s head.

Latin American governments are anxiously monitoring a major US military buildup near Venezuela, featuring naval vessels, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and thousands of marines. Such formidable assets are not very useful for drug interdiction. But they could be deployed offensively, or to support commando operations and airstrikes. Recently, Venezuela alleged the US of unauthorized entry by at least five F-35s. The president says he is preparing emergency powers to “protect our people” if Venezuela comes under attack from the United States.

Questioning the Reasons For the Moves

What is Trump up to? Drug smuggling is a serious problem – yet killing people arbitrarily on the high seas, although common and difficult to prosecute, remains illegal. And anyway, United Nations reports state most of the cocaine reaching the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is largely not transported through Venezuela. The president, a known avoided military service, likes to act the tough commander-in-chief. Currently, he is trying to deport Venezuelan migrants, a large number previously escaped to the US due to sanctions he himself enforced. Experts suggest he desires Venezuela’s vast oil, gas and mineral resources.

Indeed that Trump and John Bolton, attempted to oust Maduro back in 2019 in what Caracas claimed a regime change plot. It’s also true, Maduro’s 2024 re-election win was widely denounced as fraudulent. If allowed to vote freely, Venezuelans would almost certainly remove him. Furthermore, clashing political beliefs play a role, as well. The leader, poor successor to his predecessor's socialist movement, is an affront to the president's dominant idea of an American-led the Americas, in which the 1823 Monroe doctrine rules again and neoliberal capitalism operates without restraint.

Lack of Clear Planning

However given his inept missteps on other major international matters, the probable reason for the president's actions is that, typically, he hasn’t got a clue what he’s doing – in Venezuela or the region as a whole. No strategy exists. He throws his weight about, takes rash decisions, stokes fear of foreigners and forms policies based on if he approves of other leaders. Previously, with Maduro in trouble, Trump backed down. Today, full-scale armed involvement in Venezuela is still improbable. More probable is a heightened campaign of coercion of destabilisation, sanctions, maritime strikes, and aerial and special forces operations.

Far from undermining and marginalizing the regime, Trump may achieve the exact opposite. Maduro is already using the situation to assume dictatorial emergency authority and rally public opinion with nationalist appeals for national solidarity. The president's bullying towards other socialist Latin American countries – like Colombia – and overconfident cheerleading for conservative populists from Argentina and El Salvador – is provoking pushback across the continent, too. The majority of nations detest the thought of a return to the past era of American meddling in the hemisphere.

Regional Reaction and Foreign Policy Failures

The administration's attempt to employ punitive tariffs and restrictions to strong-arm Brazil to pardoning its disgraced conservative president Jair Bolsonaro backfired spectacularly recently. Massive protests demonstrated in Brazilian urban centers to defend what they rightly saw as an attack on Brazilian sovereignty and rule of law. Public support of the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. “We are not, and never again will we be, anyone’s colony,” he declared. The Brazilian leader told the US president, essentially, to get lost. Later, at their meeting at the UN summit, Trump backed off and played nice.

The view of a significant regression in inter-American ties grows ineluctably. The White House views Latin America mainly as a security threat, associating it with drug trafficking, criminal networks and immigration,” a noted analyst cautioned earlier this year. “The US approach is essentially adversarial, favoring unilateral action and dominance instead of cooperation,” she said, stating: “The region is being treated not as an equal partner and rather as a sphere of influence to be dominated according to US strategic interests.”

Aggressive Advisers and Escalating Rhetoric

Trump’s hawkish aides are part of the problem: notably a senior official, administration top aide, and Marco Rubio, a former Republican senator for Florida who is secretary of state and security advisor. For Rubio, a long-standing opponent of leftwing rulers in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Defending the naval strikes, he declared: Seizures are ineffective. What will stop them is when you blow them up … This will continue.” Coming from the top US diplomat, these are strong words.

Long-term Implications

Trump’s efforts to reprise the position of Latin American neighbourhood policeman, copying ex-leader Theodore Roosevelt – a big stick-wielding serial interventionist – are regressive, risky and counterproductive. Long-term, the main beneficiary will probably be Beijing, a growingly influential regional actor, investor and leading member of the international bloc of nations. While America severs ties across the world, the administration is helping China rise in influence.