How Likely For Trump's Gaza Strip Proposal Will Be Effective?
The militant group's partial approval of Donald Trump's Gaza ceasefire deal last Friday was received global support representing the closest Israel and Hamas have come in two years to ending the fighting in Gaza.
How Near Is a Deal?
Hamas's qualified acceptance of the Trump plan is the closest negotiators have got in recent months to a comprehensive termination of the conflict in Gaza. Nevertheless, they remain distant from a settlement.
Trump's twenty-point proposal to conclude the conflict requires that Hamas release every captive within 72 hours, surrender governing authority to a transnational authority led by the US president, and lay down its weapons. In return, Israeli forces would gradually withdraw its forces from Gaza and return more than one thousand inmates.
The deal includes an increase of relief supplies to Gaza, parts of which are experiencing starvation, and recovery financing to the Palestinian territory, which has been almost entirely destroyed.
The organization only agreed to three points: the freeing of all hostages, the surrendering of power and the pullout of Israeli troops from Gaza. The group stated the remaining parts of the agreement should be discussed alongside additional Palestinian factions, since it forms part of a joint national approach.
Effectively, this implies Hamas wants further negotiations on the contentious elements of the Trump deal, specifically the request for its disarmament, and a definite schedule on Israel’s withdrawal.
Where and When Will Negotiations Take Place?
Delegates have traveled to Cairo to finalize details to bridge the divide between Israel and Hamas.
The talks will start tomorrow and it is anticipated to bring results over the next several days, whether positive or negative.
The US president shared a picture of a map of Gaza last Saturday evening that showed the boundary to which Israeli troops should withdraw stating that if the group consents to the terms, that the ceasefire would begin immediately. The US president is keen to stop the conflict as it comes to its two year mark and before the Nobel prize committee announces who receives the peace prize in October, which is a widely known preoccupation for him.
Benjamin Netanyahu announced an agreement to bring Israeli hostages home would ideally take place soon.
What Gaps Persist?
The two sides have hedged their positions heading into negotiations.
The group has repeatedly declined to lay down its weapons in past negotiations. It has given no indication on if its stance has changed on this, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with conditions. The US and Israel have made it clear that there exists limited flexibility on the disarmament issue and are resolved to pin Hamas down with binding language in any plan moving forward.
Hamas additionally stated it agreed to handing over authority over Gaza to an expert-led administration, as specified in the US proposal. However, in its announcement, Hamas clarified it would accept a Palestinian expert-led administration, not the international body proposed by Trump in the proposal.
Israel has also sought to maintain the issue of its troop withdrawal vague. Just hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan in a joint press conference in the US capital last week, Netanyahu released a recording reassuring the Israeli public that troops would stay across much of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, the Israeli prime minister again repeated that forces would stay in Gaza, saying that hostages would be released while the Israel Defense Forces would remain “deep inside the strip”.
The prime minister's stance appears to conflict with the stipulation in the US proposal that Israeli forces completely pull out from Gaza. The group will seek guarantees that Israeli forces will fully withdraw and that should the group gives up its weapons, Israeli troops will not re-enter the strip.
Mediators will have to close these gaps, obtaining firm, unambiguous terms on disarmament from Hamas. They will also have to demonstrate to the faction that the Israeli government will truly withdraw from the territory and that there are international guarantees that will force Israel to adhere with the conditions of the deal.
The differences might be resolved, and the US will certainly push both parties to reach a deal. Nevertheless, the talks have come near to an agreement before suddenly collapsing multiple times over the last 24 months, leaving both parties wary of declaring victory before pen is on paper.